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～慧声慧色～11月27日 How to Deliver a Successful PresentationHow Sarah Palin Should Prepare... and How You Should, TooPosted by Nick Morgan on September 30, 2008 2:52 PM  
The anticipated audience for the Vice Presidential debate threatens to exceed that of the first Presidential debate, and it's not necessarily because of the issues on the table. No, the crowd for this show is more akin to people who watch NASCAR races in hopes of a crash. First, remember that every speech is two conversations - the verbal (the content) and the non-verbal (the body language). If the two are aligned, you can be effective. If the two are not aligned, the audience believes the non-verbal every time. The most important implication of this fact is that you must rehearse. If you don't, your body language will tell the audience - no matter how good you think you are - that you are doing this for the first time. While that's charming in 3-year-olds' dance performances, it doesn't cut it when you're expected to look like you know what you're doing. We are all unconscious experts in reading body language, and we'll pick up instantly if you're an amateur at this particular game. Second, rehearse under conditions as close to reality as possible. If you can get into the hall, rehearse there. If not, approximate it. The reason is that surprises at the event itself will throw you, and more than 3 surprises will flummox you. And that will show up in your body language. If the lights are brighter, or the sound is more echo-y, or the stage is bigger than you anticipated, that takes mental energy to deal with - mental energy that you won't be putting into a sparkling performance. Third, to further ensure that your two conversations are aligned, make certain that you are comfortable with and passionate about your content. If it doesn't ring true to you, you won't be able to make it ring true to for you audience. Once again, your body will betray your ambivalence. Confidence comes from having a great speech - for you - knowing it cold, and rehearsing it thoroughly. Don't ever think, I'll just wing it. The people who wing it are never as good as they think they are. It's also important to engage in positive self-talk. If that sounds too 'new age', get over it. You will be engaging in negative self-talk, also known as worrying. It will seep into your unconscious and give your body language a fine patina of fear, uncertainty, and doubt. You must combat that unconscious self-betrayal by telling yourself, constantly, I'm going to be fine; I know the material well; I'm excited to have this chance; and so on. Olympic-level athletes understand that the need for mental conditioning is just as important as the need for physical conditioning. It's the same for speakers in high-stakes situations. Adrenaline will be coursing through your system. You need to be ready for it. Just before the speech, there are three things you can do to improve your performance.
11月17日 轻松一下，转超搞笑帖子~1 松下为什么没索尼强？ 答案：panasonic （怕了索尼哥） 11月13日 美元体系的兴衰—本次金融危机的由来及对策, by 廖子光美元体系的兴衰——本次金融危机的由来及对策 廖子光先生（Henry C.K. Liu），1938年出生在香港，在哈佛大学接受过建筑学和城市设计的教育，后在加利福尼亚大学洛杉矶分校、哈佛大学和哥伦比亚大学任教，其间对经济学和国际关系产生了浓厚的兴趣。廖子光先生曾担任过著名的洛克菲勒公司投资顾问，现任纽约著名的廖氏投资咨询公司总裁。 自2002年以来，廖子光先生在香港出版的由马来西亚人主办的《亚洲时报》（Asia Times）上开设“The Complete Henry C K Liu”专栏，其文章重点研究美元霸权对世界与中国和平发展的影响，美国全球霸权战略的地缘、军事、经济意义，以及美中关系的历史、现状与未来这三个领域。
2008年9月23日晚上，纽约廖氏投资咨询公司总裁廖子光先生在北京大学中国经济研究中心万众楼发表了题为“美元体系的兴衰”演讲。以下是这次演讲的主要内容。 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 美国金融体系是如何陷入今天困境？要完全理解这个问题，我们需要回溯20世纪历史，看看以美元为核心的国际货币体系是如何建立的。二战是一个关键点，众所周知，在二战之后世界上大部分的国家都完全被战争毁坏，只有美国幸运地没有成为硝烟之地，这使得美国有能力去为欧洲提供土地租金形式的支持（land lease support）。 战后的欧洲非常贫乏，美国决定开展马歇尔计划（Marshall plan）。此举赢得了全球的赞誉，因为美国似乎在无私地帮助欧洲摆脱暂时的困境。但真正理解马歇尔计划的人都知道，这其实是美国人给欧洲的“特洛伊木马”。马歇尔计划中，美国总共给了欧洲200亿美元，这些美元不是以货币形式而是以商品形式提供的,即欧洲需要以这200亿美元来购买美国的商品。这是“美元霸权”(Dollar Hegemony)的开端。马歇尔计划推动美元成为国际金融体系的主导货币，而贫弱的欧洲当时除了接受别无他法。何况当时许多欧洲人并不理解，欧洲为何不能直接接受这送上门的丰厚礼物。
实行马歇尔计划的时候美国是世界上最大的债权国，而现在美国是世界上最大的债务国，中国是最大的债权国。我们向美国市场借出了1万多亿美元，而且这一数值连年增长，这比马歇尔计划时期美国给欧洲的多好多倍，但为何我们对美国经济没有控制力呢？这是促使我深思的问题。我们向美国运送货物且以美元支付，当年美国向欧洲输出货物也用美元支付，如果中国运往美国的货物以人民币支付会怎样呢？这一问题值得深思。
先回顾美元体系的建立过程。二战结束后各方召开布雷顿森林会议，重建国际货币金融体系。虽然有一百一十四个国家参会，但是实际上会议是由美英控制的。美国主导而英国跟随，因为战争已经使得英国从世界最大的债权国之一沦为世界上最大的债务国之一，而它的最大的债主就是美国。
美国从大英帝国的经验中学习。历史上英国通过高估黄金使得黄金流向英国。当英国拥有了了世界上大部分黄金储备，它便可以发行理论上由黄金支持的纸币英镑。黄金本身成为了可兑换金属货币，因为人们可以与官方按照3：1的比率进行英镑和黄金的兑换。但这其中并没有任何的本质的变化，只有所有人都更偏好兑换黄金而非白银的时候，金本位制才得到真正的确立，复本位制才退出历史舞台。这使得英国决定使用英镑作为法定货币，主导二战之前的国际经济。通过对货币的控制，英国可以操纵世界经济，在价格低的时候买入而高价卖出。这也正是美国在过去几十年做的事情。
布雷顿森林体系确立了以黄金作为支持的美元体系，1盎司黄金兑换35美元。即使在当时这个价格也偏低。当时低估金价不是问题，因为各国都欠美国很多钱，而且在未来的几年中美国将拥有全球大部分的黄金储备。
这惯坏了美国，以黄金储备作为支撑，美国似乎可以任意花钱。但问题在于美元可以固定比率与黄金进行兑换，于是当美国出现了财政和经常项目账户双赤字，当欧洲人发现他们持有的美元数目是美国的黄金储备所无法支撑的时，欧洲人对美元的信心开始下降，兑换的要求开始出现。法国人从拿破仑战争历史中认识到控制国际储备货币的重要性。他们派法国海军去纽约，要求将他们持有的美元换成黄金，然后把这些黄金运回法国的银行。华盛顿对此并不高兴，但也只好遵守兑换黄金的承诺。至此，50%的黄金储备被提走了。三个星期后，美国忠实的伙伴英国要求把自己持有美元换成黄金。三天后尼克松总统发表讲话，外国不可以再把美元兑换成黄金，没有协商的余地，这是美国的主权决定。
在这个决定后，美元实质上是美国发行的法定货币，即使出现通货膨胀也没有任何惩罚。（如果以前出现通货膨胀，外国人就会把他们持有的美元兑换成更加保值的黄金。）然而奇怪的就是，在该决定发布后美国国际储备货币的地位没有改变，自此国际贸易成为了这样一种游戏：美国生产美元，其他国家生产美元可以买的产品。这就是美国大力推动“自由贸易”的原因所在。
二战刚结束的时候，国际贸易还是国内经济的一个比较小的部分，而且资本的跨国流动还被认为既不合意也没有必要，因此这个问题还没有受到重视。在冷战期间，在两大阵营之间没有贸易，经济往来由援助主导。每一个超级大国都援助他们阵营内部的国家，来获得内部的团结，来说服体制内的人们自己的体制更好。阵营内部变得更平等了，接受援助的国家虽然不至于因此而变得富强，但确实有直接的获益。冷战之后，美国这个支撑下来的超级大国没有必要再援助任何人了，他们认为历史已经证明了资本主义优于社会主义。但这不正确，事实上苏联在赫鲁晓夫之前都做的很好。当时赫鲁晓夫坚持与美国进行军备竞赛，而军备部门的很多东西都需要以美元进行购买。为了解决这个问题，赫鲁晓夫要解禁经常帐户，融入国际货币体系，而国际货币体系此时是由资本主义、更准确地说是被美国主导的。莫斯科不产美元而华盛顿可以，所以苏联只好挣美元来维持军备竞赛。这是苏联失败的原因——失败并不是由于共产主义不能产生财富，而是因为共产主义试图按照资本主义的规则运转。
二战结束后，援助不再成为主导的交易形式，金融全球化开始加速，贸易变成经济增长的唯一来源。当时主流经济学文献都写着：要变富，就得贸易。但是对于中国，一个贸易依存度（进出口总额占GDP的比率）达到70%以上的国家，这非常危险。一般来讲，贸易依存度比较健康的在35%左右，例如现在美国的这一指标是32%-33%。对于一个贸易依存度在70%的国家，如果这些外贸交易以美元结算，这意味着什么呢？这意味着我们在向美国输出财富，而换回我们没有办法在国内用的美元，除非把美元换回人民币。
这是一个问题：当我们向国内发人民币，这些人民币是没有实体财富支持的，因为很多实体财富都运往美国了。因而我国出现了通货膨胀。央行唯一的选择是，把这些收到的美元投资于美国市场，比如说买美国的国债。我们借给美国的钱比美国借给欧洲的多很多倍，但是相比之下，美国通过债权人的地位赢得了对欧洲经济的影响力，而作为最大的债权国的我们却不得不受制于美国、被动地服务于它。这是不合逻辑的。
自由贸易的问题在于，它利用资本跨境流动来进行工资套利，创造利润回馈国际资本。这是外国资本涌入中国的原因。在今天的中国，工人的工资太低，他们买不起他们生产的衬衫，因而只好出口这些衬衫。我们需要有高工资的充分就业，这些高工资可以让工人买得起他们生产的东西，同时进行资本积累。但外国资本家不希望这样做，因为在这种情况下，他们需要把这些产业转移到泰国等劳动力成本更便宜的国家。而我认为，这些产业的转移并不会对我们造成太大的威胁，我们不需要这样的产业，这些产业本来就是从美国转移到深圳等东南沿海地区的。当然我们也有很多在这个产业经营和生产的人，他们会担心因此失去工作。认为我们为何不能依赖自己发展的人的论据是“我们没有筹码”。但是他们却没有指出我们没有筹码的原因是工资太低。他们认为提高工资这会造成通货膨胀。而事实上，只要货币供给增长同经济扩张同步，是不会有通货膨胀的。唯一的可能的通胀，是美国货币供给增加而我们的经济没有相应的增长。
要脱离美元霸权的控制，利用主权信贷去发展自己的经济。我们不要再大力鼓励出口，而要大力发展国内经济，最终让外贸依存度恢复到健康水平（35%）左右。如果我们仔细观察GDP和GNP的关系，会发现真正获益的是国外投资。因此我们应当建立起GNP指标。国务院最好颁布，10月1日起所有出口都得以人民币结算。我们不需要征询任何人同意，这是我们的主权决定。一夜之间，人民币就会变成世界储备货币，因为我们是最大出口国。别国不可能不买我们的东西，因为它们不得不这样做，否则它们的通货膨胀率要翻番。当规定实施后，外国所需的人民币要从国家外汇管理局（SAFE）买。国家外汇管理局将会拥有世界影响力，它不需要再听华盛顿讲什么是合适的汇率水平，而由自己来决定。阿拉伯人买了很多我们的衣服、鞋子、汽车，卖给我们石油。过去我们用美元结算，现在美元买不了中国东西了，我们只需要接受人民币，然后用人民币买石油。这样我们就可以发展国际贸易而不经手美元。坚持我们的商品要用我们的货币结算，是我们的国家权力。
我的另外一项提议是，让中国人民银行转换角色，将中央银行体系转化为国家银行体系。如果不转变，就无法摆脱美元霸权；如果不摆脱美元霸权，那么中国就不能使用主权信贷工具，永远依赖于外国资本，就无法真正地发展中国经济。这是因为，外资只会投资外贸部门，由于国内经济不生产美元，它们只能收回美元后再用美元买我们的东西。这是我们沿海和内陆发展不平衡的原因。除非人们认为人民币是管用的，所有的鼓励投资内陆的政策都不会有效。
我们要保证我们国家财富不是投资于愚蠢的东西，如送上门的垃圾公司。当然我们有可能通过向这些公司学习运营和管理经验而获益。但是，即使它们的经营确实比我们技高一筹，我们也有可能什么都学不到。中投公司投资于黑石，却连个董事会席位都没有得到，没有席位，学习无从谈起。任何其他人购买10%以上股份就可以得到一个席位，我们却没有。因为如果我们要席位，我们就得征询美国政府的意见，而他们会采取“保护措施”。
如何使用我们的财富呢？我们应当将绝大部分的财富投资于人力资本。人力资本才是一个国家伟大的财富。怎样提供呢？提供食物是不够的，要提供教育。在美国，每个州都有一个国家一流的州立大学，由联邦政府支持。我们有三十多个省，我们也应当有三十多所省立大学，宽进严出。如果进入大学的门槛过高，这是非常不公平的。受制于信息的缺乏，许多来自贫困地区的人虽然非常聪明能干，但却不能进入这些大学。如果给他们6个月的时间接受好的教育，他们可以做得非常棒。
我们不仅要培训人民，更要给他们提供机会，换句话说，我们需要为他们提供工作。洛克菲勒曾经向工厂经理们发行工作息票（work coupons），让他们用这些息票来雇用工人，工人用息票买东西。当工人拿到息票，在六个月之内的任何时候都可以向政府要求用息票换货币。因为有政府做后盾，短短三个月内，息票的受欢迎度就赶上了货币。这样，洛克菲勒应对了经济萧条的挑战，经济开始新的运转：雇工人，工人产生收入，收入可以买东西，东西为公司创造利润。
我们需要做的是，复兴我们的经济，以恢复我们原本的大国地位。到了那个时候，外国需要来玩我们的游戏，按照我们的规则做事。他们要来北京学习，而不是我们不去纽约去学习。这是制胜之道。有一种说法，当中国变得强大，中国将像英国、德国一样成为另一个帝国主义政权。西方舆论常常这样讲。但单从历史角度看，这就是错误的。中国素来有“大方外交”的说法。历史上的中国富有而发达，四方的人们都愿意来加入中国，而中国没有必要主动去掠夺他们。如果想加入中国的人太多了，我们就设立边界和他们分开。在唐代没有主动地侵犯掠夺，如果我们恢复了我们理应当的位置，作为一个伟大的文明，那么我们没有必要侵犯和掠夺。我们是幸运的，我们拥有的是大陆陆地而非岛国。从定义上来说，我们不需要变成一个通过侵犯和掠夺才能发展壮大的国家（如英国、日本等）。我们只需要集中精力在我们自己的发展上。 11月12日 Warren Buffett & Steve Jobs: 10 SimilaritiesWarren Buffett & Steve Jobs: 10 SimilaritiesPosted by Casey Hopkins on November 11, 2008 at 2:07 pm PST
They are the best at what they do, here are 10 qualities they share.
Live non glamorous lifestylesWarren Buffett, worth $63 billion, lives in a $700,000 house and has been there for 50 years. His license plate reads “THRIFTY”. Have you ever seen the website of Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway, 7th largest corporation in the world? It epitomizes Buffet’s frugality. Disheveled hair and wild eyebrows compliment his awkward fitting suits and favorite old sweaters. Steve shuns the Silicon Valley social scene and, even largest single shareholder of Disney, never walks the red carpet to Hollywood events. He bought a mansion in Woodville, CA in 1984 – living in it largely unfurnished for the next 10 years. A black mock turtle neck, worn Levi 501s and New Balance kicks are Steve’s every occasion wear. LiberalBuffett endorsed Barrack Obama for president. Warren, and his late wife, Susan, long supported pro-choice causes. Speaking at an event last year for Hillary Clinton, he blasted the tax code for having his secretary paying a higher percentage tax than him (his income is mostly through capital gains). The billionaire is also vocal against passing on “dynastic wealth” and testified before congress defending the estate tax. Buffett’s beliefs are cored in what he calls the Ovarian Lottery: “I have been very lucky. I was born in the United States in 1930 and won the lottery the day I was born. I had terrific parents, a good, education, and I was wired in a way that paid off disproportionately in this particular society. If I had been born long ago or in some other country, my particular writing would not have paid off the way it has. But in a market system, where capital-allocation wiring is important, it pays off like no other place.” Interestingly, Warren’s father, Howard Buffett, was a 4 term congressman with strict Libertarian/Conservative Ron Paul like views on foreign and monetary policy. In respect to Howard, Warren didn’t change his registration to Democrat until after his father passed away. Having experimented with drugs, studied eastern religions, and influenced by Bob Dylan – Steve and Apple are icons of the anti-establishment. Steve’s political donations make it more clear. Steve brought Al Gore onto Apple’s board of directors and praised his Nobel winning work on global warming. Apple’s computers lead the industry in recyclable material, minimizing packaging and eliminating lead and other toxins. Apple came out publicly against an anti gay rights ballot measure in California. Dive deeper than the competitionBuffett dedicates hours every day reading the news and thousands of financial reports – he’s a vacuum cleaner of information. Buffet made a deal with the local paper boy to have the next day’s Wall Street Journal delivered to his house at midnight, before everyone else reads it that morning. When developing new products, Steve has his designers and engineers come up with dozens of different designs. Rapid prototyping machines, tool makers, CNC machinists, printed circuit board machines, and more work around the clock to make full scale working prototype models. They even have the same manufacturing equipment in Cupertino as they use China to design for manufacture. These prototypes are evaluated by Jobs and company, and revisions made until they are perfect. This iterative process is also performed for software. The work Apple puts into getting their products right is unprecedented in the industry and a testament to the investment Apple puts into R&D. ShowmenThey call it Woodstock for Capitalists. Berkshire Hathaway’s annual shareholder meeting attracts thousands of people from around the world. Buffet plays the Ukulele on stage, then spends hours happily answering questions from shareholders. Timid when younger, Buffet took in Dale Carnegie’s Public speaking class after finishing college and proudly keeps the certificate of completion hanging in his office to show visitors. No other public company has meetings so large and attended. Apple events are Steve’s chance to introduce new products to the world. He performs onstage to a packed auditorium of media and millions more tuned in online. No other company introduces new products with as much attention and fanfare (or gets as much free advertising). See the futureThey call him the “Oracle of Omaha”, Buffett’ average annual compounded return for the past 30 years: 21%. $1 invested then would be $515 today. He buys only companies and stocks he understands completely and scours financial reports to find them under-priced. He has famously has never invested in technology stocks, even when Bob Noyce, one of Buffett’s fellow members on the Grinnell College board, offered him the chance to invest in a startup called Intel in 1968. In 2003, Buffett argued in his annual shareholder letter that the unregulated derivatives markets were “financial weapons of mass destruction” and most journalists thought he was overreacting. While hedge funds were buying mortgage backed securities with up to 100x leverage along with credit default swaps to seemingly eliminate risk, Buffet saw the writing on the wall. Fast forward to 2008 – Credit crisis, bank failures, huge deleveraging, and massive government intervention. According to his new biography, Snowball, Buffett is taking advantage – trading mispriced bonds, selling default swaps (insurance against firms going bankrupt) on under-priced securities, and buying distressed mortgages at fire sale prices. He also invested in Goldman Sachs and GE – getting a slam dunk deal of preferred stock with a 10% annual dividend and options to buy more within 5 years at today’s price. Steve Jobs knows what people will want and makes them great products. Apple doesn’t have focus groups judging products or does design by committee… they keep it close to the vest and it all runs through Jobs. Built companies from scratchBuffett started building his war chest in grade school, delivering newspaper. His prized possession as a youth was a wearable coin holder. He wrote his bicycle and watch off his taxes at 13 years old. Bought and leased out a 40 acre farm when he was 16. Returning from his MBA at Columbia after studying under his icon, the famous value investor Ben Graham, Buffet started an investment partnership with 7 friends and family, contributing a total of $105,000 capital for him to invest. After years of 30-60% growth and many more people added to the partnership, he shut it down and poured his money into Berkshire Hathaway, a textile manufacturer which he controlled. Money Berkshire made was reinvested in other underpriced stocks and whole companies and the rest is history. SecrecyBuffett never gives out advice on buying certain stocks, nor gives expectations of what the market will do in the near term. When building up positions in stocks, he uses third party proxies and trusted traders to not tip off anyone about his moves. Apple has security on par with the CIA. Work is performed on a need to know basis. Apple, as we know, is the most secretive of them all. Beyond never divulging information about the company’s future plans, they are notoriously tight-lipped when it comes to relatively standard public information. Small, tight knit managementOmaha’s Kiewit Plaza, the unlikely headquarters Berkshire Hathaway, houses Buffet and his office of 12 people. All stock and purchasing decisions are made by Buffet and long time partner Charlie Munger. The managers of the companies Berkshire owns are largely autonomous and may only hear from Buffett a few times per year, as long as they are performing well. Steve has a lean group of ten managers reporting to him: the COO, CFO, general counsel, and vice presidents of marketing, hardware, software, industrial design, retail, applications, and the iPhone. 100% ControlAll investment decisions at Berkshire Hathaway are made by Buffett. Buffett’s ability to find great managers lets him focus on finding new companies, investments and stocks to allocate capital to. Everything at Apple – hardware and software development, marketing, strategy planning, and top level hiring - goes through Mr. Jobs. Company 100% dependent on themIt’s the unfortunate corollary to having complete control. What would happen to AAPL or BRK if they lost their Shepherd? History has seen what happened when Steve was forced out the first time – a spiraling product line up and dwindling profit and market share. Steve secretly had surgery in 2004 to remove pancreatic cancer. Looking gaunt at recent Apple events, uncertainty of Steve’s health attributed to AAPL’s near 40% drop since the summer. Is Buffet replaceable? His like-minded right hand man, Charlie Munger, is just as old. Last year, Buffett and his board chose three potential people to take over, should he pass away. They also chose to divide his responsibilities between two people – a CEO and a Chief Investment Officer. Buffett said last year “The good news: At 76, I feel terrific and, according to all measurable indicators, am in excellent health, It’s amazing what Cherry Coke and hamburgers will do for a fellow.” Bonus round: Biggest dissimilarity?Relationship with Bill Gates. Buffett and Gates vacation together and play bridge online regularly. Gates surprised his to-be wife by stopping their plane in Omaha to have Buffet take them to Borsheim’s, a jewelry store Berkshire owns, to choose an engagement ring. Gates joined Berkshire’s board of directors in 2002. Buffett pledged 84% of his fortune to the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation: “It was clear that Bill Gates had an outstanding mind with the right goals, focusing intensely with passion and heart on improving the lot of mankind around the world without any regard to gender, religion, color, or geography. He was just doing the most good for the most people. So when the time came to make a decision on where the money would go, it was a simple decision.” Gates has been Steve’s arch-rival for 20 years. Microsoft copied Apple’s user interface… well, you know the rest. 10月26日 Business is a great teacher“Business is a great teacher: It makes you take risks, go for your dreams, face fears, handle your emotions, deal with difficult people, and learn balance. You don’t have to do any weird workshops or sign up for any therapy sessions. Go into business and you’ll be enrolled in the greatest seminar of all time. And it happens every day, every where, to every one. You can’t avoid it.”
from the seven lost secrets of success 10月8日 How to Market in a Recession-by John Quelch金融海啸袭来，全球经济笼罩在衰退阴影之中。如何在艰难的市况下进行市场活动？How to Market in a Recession"Recession is possible." Fed Chairman Bernanke has used the R word in this week's Congressional hearings. That in itself makes a US recession more likely. The proposed $700 billion bailout will apply a temporary "bandaid" to the current dire economic situation, or, to use current parlance, put lipstick on a pig. The pressure for tax rate increases at Federal and State levels will increase; expect accelerated privatizations of public infrastructure as elected officials do everything to avoid the day of reckoning. ------------------------------------- The signs of an imminent recession are all around us. The spillover from the subprime mortgage crisis is weakening both consumer confidence and the consumer spending--much of it on credit--that has been buoying the US economy. Companies should bear eight factors in mind when making their marketing plans for 2008 and 2009: 1. Research the customer. Instead of cutting the market research budget, you need to know more than ever how consumers are redefining value and responding to the recession. Price elasticity curves are changing. Consumers take more time searching for durable goods and negotiate harder at the point of sale. They are more willing to postpone purchases, trade down, or buy less. Must-have features of yesterday are today's can-live-withouts. Trusted brands are especially valued and they can still launch new products successfully but interest in new brands and new categories fades. Conspicuous consumption becomes less prevalent. 2. Focus on family values. When economic hard times loom, we tend to retreat to our village. Look for cozy hearth-and-home family scenes in advertising to replace images of extreme sports, adventure and rugged individualism. Zany humor and appeals on the basis of fear are out. Greeting card sales, telephone use and discretionary spending on home furnishings and home entertainment will hold up well, as uncertainty prompts us to stay at home but also stay connected with family and friends. 3. Maintain marketing spending. This is not the time to cut advertising. It is well documented that brands that increase advertising during a recession, when competitors are cutting back, can improve market share and return on investment at lower cost than during good economic times. Uncertain consumers need the reassurance of known brands--and more consumers at home watching television can deliver higher than expected audiences at lower cost-per-thousand impressions. Brands with deep pockets may be able to negotiate favourable advertising rates and lock them in for several years. If you have to cut marketing spending, try to maintain the frequency of advertisements by shifting from 30-to-15 second advertisements, substituting radio for television advertising, or increasing the use of direct marketing, which gives more immediate sales impact. 4. Adjust product portfolios. Marketers must reforecast demand for each item in their product lines as consumers trade down to models that stress good value, such as cars with fewer options. Tough times favour multi-purpose goods over specialised products and weaker items in product lines should be pruned. In grocery-products categories, good-quality own-brands gain at the expense of national brands. Industrial customers prefer to see products and services unbundled and priced separately. Gimmicks are out; reliability, durability, safety and performance are in. New products, especially those that address the new consumer reality and thereby put pressure on competitors, should still be introduced but advertising should stress superior price performance, not corporate image. 5. Support distributors. In uncertain times, no one wants to tie up working capital in excess inventories. Early-buy allowances, extended financing and generous return policies motivate distributors to stock your full product line. This is particularly true with unproven new products. Be careful about expanding distribution to lower-priced channels; doing so can jeopardise existing relationships and your brand image. However, now may be the time to drop your weaker distributors and upgrade your sales force by recruiting those sacked by other companies. 6. Adjust pricing tactics. Customers will be shopping around for the best deals. You do not necessarily have to cut list prices but you may need to offer more temporary price promotions, reduce thresholds for quantity discounts, extend credit to long-standing customers and price smaller pack sizes more aggressively. In tough times, price cuts attract more consumer support than promotions such as sweepstakes and mail-in offers. 7. Stress market share. In all but a few technology categories where growth prospects are strong, companies are in a battle for market share and, in some cases, survival. Knowing your cost structure can ensure that any cuts or consolidation initiatives will save the most money with minimum customer impact. Companies such as Wal-Mart and Southwest Airlines, with strong positions and the most productive cost structures in their industries, can expect to gain market share. Other companies with healthy balance sheets can do so by acquiring weak competitors. 8. Emphasise core values. Although most companies are making employees redundant, chief executives can cement the loyalty of those who remain by assuring employees that the company has survived difficult times before, maintaining quality rather than cutting corners and servicing existing customers rather than trying to be all things to all people. CEOs must spend more time with customers and employees. Economic recession can elevate the importance of the finance director's balance sheet over the marketing manager's income statement. Managing working capital can easily dominate managing customer relationships. CEOs must counter this. Successful companies do not abandon their marketing strategies in a recession; they adapt them. 10月2日 中國還有什麼是能吃的?有毒食品最全收集(組圖)-ZZ中國還有什麼是能吃的?有毒食品最全收集(組圖) 引子︰關于三鹿奶粉事件的最新報導︰目前國家把責任推給三鹿；三鹿把責任推給奶農，奶農將責任推給奶牛，警方正全力抓捕不法奶牛。據報導，責任奶牛己攜二奶潛逃，僅捕獲一小撮不明真相的奶牛。目前母牛們情緒穩定……另據最新消息，水牛和蝸牛己通過半島電台發表聲明聲稱和此事件無關)
二、肉蛋類 三、蔬菜，水果類 四、副食，水發食品，調料制劑 五、其他
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